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Welcome to the February 2010 edition of the Basel ii Compliance Professionals Association (BCPA) newsletter
 
Dear Members,
 
Today we will discuss the meeting of the Group of Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision, the oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (10 January at the Bank for International Settlements).  A fully calibrated set of standards will be developed by the end of 2010 to be phased in as financial conditions improve and the economic recovery is assured with the aim of implementation by the end of 2012.
 
We will also discuss a paper with some very important definitions and developments: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, The Joint Forum - Stocktaking on the use of credit ratings
 
We will also answer a question: What is the “Volcker Rule” for Financial Institutions?
 

 
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Contents
1. Risk Professionals
2.
Compliance Professionals
3.
Sarbanes Oxley Professionals
4.
Basel ii Professionals
5.
Solvency ii Professionals
6.
Hedge Funds Professionals
7. Members of the
Board of Directors
 

 
Group of Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision reinforces Basel Committee reform package

11 January 2010: The Group of Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision,
the oversight body of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, met on 10 January at the Bank for International Settlements.
 
It welcomed the substantial progress of the Basel Committee to translate the Group's September 2009 agreements into a concrete package of measures, as elaborated in the Committee's 17 December 2009 Consultative proposals for Strengthening the resilience of the banking sector and the International framework for liquidity risk measurement, standards and monitoring.
 
Governors and Heads of Supervision requested the Committee to deliver a fully calibrated and finalised package of reforms by the end of this year.

President Jean-Claude Trichet, who chairs the Group, emphasised that
"timely completion of the Basel Committee reform programme is critical to achieving a more resilient banking system that can support sound economic growth over the long term."

Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision welcomed the Basel Committee's focus on both microprudential reforms to strengthen the level and quality of international capital and liquidity standards, as well as the introduction of a macroprudential overlay
to address procyclicality and systemic risk.
 
They also provided guidance and noted the importance of making progress in the following key areas:

Provisioning: It is essential that accounting standards setters and supervisors develop a truly robust provisioning approach based on expected losses (EL).
 
Building on the Basel Committee's August 2009 Guiding Principles for the replacement of IAS 39, a sound EL provisioning approach should achieve the following key objectives:
 
1) Address the deficiencies of the incurred loss approach without introducing an expansion of fair value accounting
 
2) Promote adequate and more forward looking provisioning through early identification and recognition of credit losses in a consistent and robust manner
 
3) Address concerns about procyclicality under the current incurred loss provisioning model
 
4) Incorporate a broader range of credit information, both quantitative and qualitative
 
5) Draw from banks' risk management and capital adequacy systems and
 
6) Be transparent and subject to appropriate internal and external validation by auditors, supervisors and other constituents
 
 So-called "through-the-cycle" approaches that are consistent with these principles and which promote the build up of provisions when credit exposures are taken on in good times that can be used in a downturn would be recognised.
 
The Basel Committee should translate these principles into a practical proposal by its March 2010 meeting for subsequent consideration by both supervisors and accounting standards setters.

Introducing a framework of countercyclical capital buffers: Such a framework could contain two key elements that are complementary.
 
First, it is intended to promote the build-up of appropriate buffers at individual banks and the banking sector that can be used in periods of stress.
 
This would be achieved through a combination of capital conservation measures, including actions to limit excessive dividend payments, share buybacks and compensation.
 
Second, it would achieve the broader macroprudential goal of protecting the banking sector from periods of excess credit growth through a countercyclical capital buffer linked to one or more credit variables.

Addressing the risk of systemic banking institutions: Supervisors are working to develop proposals to address the risk of systemically important banks (SIBs).
 
To this end, the Basel Committee has established a Macroprudential Group.
 
The Committee should develop a menu of approaches using continuous measures of systemic importance to address the risk for the financial system and the broader economy.
 
This includes evaluating the pros and cons of a capital and liquidity surcharge and other supervisory tools as additional possible policy options such as resolution mechanisms and structural adjustments.
 
This forms a key input to the Financial Stability Board's initiatives to address the "too-big-to-fail" problem.

Contingent capital: The Basel Committee is reviewing the role that contingent capital and convertible capital instruments could play in the regulatory capital framework.
 
This includes possible entry criteria for such instruments in Tier 1 and/or Tier 2 to ensure loss absorbency and the role of contingent and convertible capital more generally both within the regulatory capital minimum and as buffers.

Liquidity: Based on information collected through the quantitative impact assessment, the Committee should flesh out the details of the global minimum liquidity standard, which includes both the 30-day liquidity coverage ratio and the longer term structural liquidity ratio.

Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision will review concrete proposals on each of these topics
later this year.

They endorsed the Committee's approach to extensive consultation on and comprehensive assessment of the proposed reforms, covering both the impact on the banking sector and the broader economy, before arriving at a final calibration of the minimum level of capital and the buffers above the minimum at the end of this year.
 
They stressed that the aim of the new global standards should be to achieve a better balance between banking sector stability and sustainable credit growth.
 
President Trichet noted that "the Group of Central Bank Governors and Heads of Supervision will provide strong oversight of the work of the Basel Committee during this phase, including both the completion and calibration of the reforms."

The fully calibrated set of standards will be developed by the end of 2010 to be phased in as financial conditions improve and the economic recovery is assured with the aim of implementation by the end of 2012.
 
This includes appropriate phase-in measures and grandfathering arrangements for a sufficiently long period to ensure a smooth transition to the new standards.
 

 
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, The Joint Forum
Stocktaking on the use of credit ratings - June 2009
 
Introduction
A. Background
 
In its report to the G7 titled Report of the Financial Stability Forum on Enhancing Market and Institutional Resilience, the Financial Stability Forum (FSF) requested the Joint Forum to conduct a stocktaking of the uses of external credit ratings by its member authorities in the banking, securities and insurance sectors.

The request also suggested that authorities review whether their regulations and/or supervisory policies unintentionally give credit ratings an official seal of approval that discourages investors from performing their own due diligence.

To implement the FSF request, the Joint Forum Working Group on Risk Assessment and Capital (JFRAC) prepared and circulated to member authorities a questionnaire on the use of credit ratings in their jurisdictions.

The questionnaire was designed to elicit information regarding member authorities’ use of credit ratings in l
egislation (statutes), regulations (rules), and/or supervisory policies (guidance) affecting, or generated by, such authorities (collectively, LRSPs).

he questionnaire requested information on the definitions (either internal or via crossreference to an external source) of “credit ratings,” “credit rating agencies,” or any related terms as well as any references to specific credit rating agencies in LRSPs.

Member authorities were also asked questions regarding the usage of credit ratings and/or references to credit rating agencies (or, in either case, related terms) in their LRSPs, including an explanation of what each LRSP was designed to accomplish and the purpose of using credit ratings in the LRSP.

Finally, the questionnaire asked member authorities to describe their assessments, if any, of unintended implications of such uses, in particular, whether the use of credit ratings has had the effect of implying an endorsement of such ratings and/or rating agencies or discouraging investors from performing their own due diligence.

JFRAC received a total of 17 surveys from member authorities, representing 26 separate agencies from 12 different countries, as well as five responses describing international frameworks.

This report is intended to serve as a stocktaking of member authorites’ use of credit ratings.

This stocktaking is based entirely on the responses received from member authorities in response to the questionnaire circulated by JFRAC and, with the exception of the descriptions of international frameworks prepared by member authorities, does not address the use of credit ratings in any other jurisdictions.

The report is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, an expository discussion of how credit ratings are developed, what information they are intended to convey, or how and by whom they are regulated.
 
Furthermore, the report does not express any viewpoint regarding the quality, accuracy, or any other subjective evaluation of credit ratings and does not take any position on the appropriateness of member authorities’ use of credit ratings.

Pursuant to the FSF mandate, the questionnaire circulated to member authorities solicited their individual views on potential unintended consequences of their use of credit ratings in LRSPs (ie, the appearance of a “seal of approval”).
 
In preparing their responses to this portion of the questionnaire, member authorities were not expected to conduct any independent research on the issue, but instead simply to convey their broad impressions and preliminary views.

As such, the summary of these views in this report should not be construed as a definitive survey of member authorities’ positions; the report expresses the range of viewpoints expressed by member authorities on the issue of the unintended consequences of the use of credit ratings in LRSPs and takes no independent position on the subject.


Key terms used

Several key terms that are used throughout this report bear mention.

The two most significant related terms for subsets of “credit rating agencies” are
“nationally recognised statistical rating organisations” (NRSROs), which are regulated by the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (US SEC), and “external credit assessment institutions” (ECAIs), a term set forth in the Basel II framework.

The term “NRSRO” is defined in United States (US) legislation and is limited to credit rating agencies that have applied for and been granted registration by the US SEC.

This statutory definition of NRSRO is cross-referenced extensively in US regulations as well as in the Canadian Securities Administrators’ national instrument relating to the
Multijurisdictional Disclosure System (MJDS).

Almost half of the respondents referenced the term “ECAI,” with several specifically referencing the Basel II framework and/or the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) “Guidelines on the recognition of External Credit Assessment Institutions” (CEBS Guidelines) as the source for that term.

While the amended Basel II framework sets forth criteria to be used by national supervisors for the “recognition” of ECAIs, it does not contain a definition of the term.

Consistent with that framework, the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD) that implements the Basel II framework in the European Union (EU) does not define an ECAI, but instead sets forth criteria for the recognition of eligible ECAIs.

A small minority of respondents indicated that their LRSPs include an explicit definition of the term “ECAI.”

For instance, under the Australian prudential standards, an ECAI is defined as “an entity that assigns credit ratings designed to measure the creditworthiness of a counterparty or certain types of debt obligations of a counterparty.”

The majority of respondents indicated that their
legislation (statutes), regulations (rules), and/or supervisory policies (guidance) - LRSPs reference specific credit rating agencies.

All but one of those respondents mentioned Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, and Fitch Ratings.

Several respondents indicated that the individual credit rating agencies listed in their LRSPs are formally reviewed on a regular basis, in some cases on a fixed schedule (ie, annually or every five years).

Several others noted that the Basel II and/or CEBS designation procedures for ECAIs also applied to the removal of the ECAI designation.

In addition, a number of respondents indicated that their LRSPs naming individual credit rating agencies could be amended through their jurisdiction’s standard legislative or regulatory process.

Finally, the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID), an EU law designed to provide a harmonised regulatory regime for investment services, defines the term “competent rating agency” for that specific purpose as an entity that “issues credit ratings in respect of money market funds regularly and on a professional basis and is an eligible ECAI within the meaning of Article 81(1) of Directive 2006/48/EC.”

Basel Framework

Basel II serves as the foundation for the use of credit ratings in a significant number of member jurisdictions.

These jurisdictions have implemented the Basel II framework into their domestic LRSPs to varying degrees, with most appearing to have incorporated the substantial elements of the framework into their domestic LRSPs.

As alluded to above, the EU implemented Basel II via the CRD, which applies to both banks and investment firms.

 
Uses of credit ratings

As described in greater detail below, credit ratings are generally used in member jurisdictions for five key purposes:

(a) determining capital requirements;

(b) identifying or classifying assets, usually in the context of eligible investments or permissible asset concentrations;

(c) providing a credible evaluation of the credit risk associated with assets purchased as part of a securitisation offering or a covered bond offering;

(d) determining disclosure requirements;

and (e) determining prospectus eligibility.


In general, the member authorities that responded to the survey reported a greater use of credit ratings in their LRSPs covering the banking and securities sectors than in their LRSPs for the insurance sector.


A. Capital
1. Banking and securities sectors


This category features the broadest application of the use of credit ratings.

Member authorities from every jurisdiction submitting responses indicated that their LRSPs contained provisions using credit ratings for the purpose of determining net or regulatory capital, and more LRSPs are applied to capital requirements than to any other category of use.

Credit ratings were generally used in those LRSPs as a means of mapping credit risks to capital charges or risk weights.

A related use for ratings in LRSPs is the determination of margin rates; for example, certain sovereign bonds and debentures may be subject to lower margin rates as a result of receiving investment grade ratings.

In the Basel II framework, external ratings are used for the purpose of enhancing the risk sensitivity of the framework, for example, by being incorporated into assessments of the credit quality of an exposure or creditworthiness of a counterparty – and thus the imposition of capital requirements.

External ratings are primarily used under the standardised approach for credit risk,10 but also to risk-weight securitisations exposures.

The different uses of external ratings generally correspond to probability of default treatments under the standardised approaches, and to situations where the use of internally generated ratings is impossible or difficult given, for instance, the lack of statistical data for securitised products.

In most cases, for member jurisdictions that have incorporated the Basel II framework, the external ratings that can be used for the purpose of determining regulatory capital are limited to those provided by rating agencies recognised by national supervisors as ECAIs.

Supervisors assess whether these criteria are fulfilled and aim at identifying rating agencies that issue ratings that are sufficiently sound and robust to warrant using them to determine the appropriate regulatory capital levels. Supervisors are also in charge of articulating the conditions and details for the use of ratings (eg, in the EU, for the mapping of external ratings to the regulatory risk-weights or credit quality steps).

All members of the EU have implemented the CRD, which implements the Basel II framework for both banks and investment firms.

Within the EU, the decision as to whether or not to recognise an ECAI is within each member’s discretion, although the “joint assessment process” set forth in the CEBS Guidelines is designed to achieve a consistent approach among EU member states.

In Australian LRSPs for authorised deposit-taking institutions, mappings of credit ratings are used to calculate regulatory capital risk weights for certain credit risk and securitisation exposures, as set out in the Basel II framework.

In Canada, all banks have implemented the Basel II framework and hence external ratings are used to assess the credit risk of an exposure.

In Japan, credit ratings issued by Designated Rating Agencies (DRA) are used to estimate market risks and counterparty risks for the purpose of calculating the capital adequacy ratios for securities companies.

Japan also noted that for calculating the capital adequacy ratios for banks and other deposit-taking institutions, credit ratings issued by ECAIs are used subject to the Financial Services Agency (JFSA) ordinance under the Banking Act.

In the United States, which features the most widespread use of credit ratings in LRSPs that establish capital requirements in the securities and banking sectors, the use of credit ratings for capital purposes is almost exclusively restricted to those issued by credit rating agencies designated as NRSROs through the US SEC’s registration process.

2. Insurance Sector

In the European Union, the existing insurance and reinsurance directives do not contain any provisions that place reliance on credit rating agencies.

There is no explicit credit risk charge for the solvency margin in the Solvency I framework.

The solvency margin in the Solvency I framework is not the sum of different capital charges related to different risks, but a single capital charge calibrated to reflect all the risks an insurance company faces.

Nevertheless, the importance of credit quality is taken into account in the rules applying to asset allocation; but they are not based on the use of credit ratings.

For instance, Article 24 of Directive 2002/83/EC establishes rules for investment diversification without any reference to credit ratings.

An insurance company must diversify the assets that cover its liabilities towards policyholders and limit its investments in certain asset classes as a percentage of total liabililties.

However, a number of member jurisdictions’ national laws implementing the investment rules of the current Solvency I Directives do refer to, or place reliance on, ratings in order to determine whether a certain asset is authorised or eligible to cover technical provisions.

Moreover, in a number of member jurisdictions, (re)insurance undertakings are required, as part of their internal reinsurance policy, to pay special attention to the financial strength of their reinsurers, using ratings as a proxy.

For example, in the Netherlands, when pension funds reinsure their assets, they must maintain buffers to cover the risk of the reinsurance company defaulting on its obligations.

The size of these buffers depends on the credit spread of the reinsurance company.

As a gesture to the sector, on its website, De Nederlandsche Bank publishes credit spreads that (smaller) pension funds can use when they cannot obtain market data.

In the United Kingdom, the Insurance Prudential Sourcebook provides a table with “listed rating agencies” (A.M. Best Company, Fitch Ratings, Moody’s Investor Service, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services), including credit rating descriptions and “spread factors.”
 
With regard to insurance capital resources requirements, credit ratings from these firms are used in determining assumed spread stresses.

In the United States, insurance regulators require bonds and preferred stocks to be reported in statutory financial statements in one of six National Association of Insurance Commissioners (NAIC) designations categories that denote credit quality.

If an accepted rating organisation (ARO) has rated the security, the security is not required to be filed with the NAIC’s Securities Valuation Office (SVO).

Rather, the ARO rating is used to map the security to one of the six NAIC designation categories.

The NAIC designations are primarily designed to assist regulators (as opposed to investors) to monitor the financial condition of their insurers.

Finally, in light of the impact that the credit market crisis had on the credit ratings of the financial guarantors and the bonds they insure, the NAIC announced that the SVO will be issuing “substitute” ratings for some municipal bonds. In doing so, the NAIC will be assessing the creditworthiness of the municipality that issued the debt.

These credit ratings will be used to determine the risk based capital charge for the security.

The insurance regulators indicated that the proposal will “decouple” the NAIC rating from the rating agency process.

In Canada, a significant portion of an insurer’s capital requirement (especially for a life insurer) arises from its exposure to credit risk.

This component of the overall insurer capital requirement is determined using asset default factors.

For rated short term securities, bonds, loans and private placements, these factors are based on the rating agency grade.

In its life insurer capital guideline, the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) states that:

“A company must consistently follow the latest ratings from a recognized, widely followed credit rating agency.

Only where that rating agency does not rate a particular instrument, the rating of another recognized, widely followed credit rating agency may be used.

However, if the Office believes that the results are inappropriate, a higher capital charge would be required.”

Further, in Canada, asset default factors for preferred shares, where rated, are based on the rating agency grade.

For financial leases where rated, and the lease is also secured by the general credit of the lessee, the asset default factor is based on the rating agency grade.

Other examples of the use of credit ratings in LRSPs governing capital requirements are found in Japan, where credit ratings issued by DRAs are used to calculate the solvency margin ratios regarding estimating credit risks for insurance companies, and Australia, where prudential standards for both general insurers and life insurers use credit ratings to assign counterparty grades used in regulatory capital requirements.

 
B. Asset Identification
1. Banking and securities sector


The field of LRSPs cited by the second highest number of respondents was, broadly speaking, asset identification/categorisation.

This includes, for example, the designation of permissible investments and/or required investments for mutual funds as well as the establishment of, and exceptions to, investment concentration limits for particular types of assets.

In most cases, member jurisdictions reported that credit ratings were used in both the banking and securities sectors. In addition, the United Kingdom Financial Services Authority (UK FSA) noted that credit ratings are not used in any of its three financial sectors for asset identification.

In the EU, the Undertakings for Collective Investment in Transferable Securities Directives (UCITS Directives) on collective investment schemes does not contain provisions which make reference to credit ratings.

However, Commission Directive 2007/16/EC,22 which clarifies certain definitions used in the UCITS Directives, contains two specific references to credit ratings relating to money market instruments.

In Japan, a securities dealer is generally not allowed to be a lead manager for a security issued by its parent or subsidiary company.

However, it is exempt from this regulation if the security is rated by a DRA that is subject to the Cabinet Office Ordinance of Act on Financial Instruments Business Operators Art153(iv) under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act.

As in the case of US capital requirement LRSPs, the extensive banking and securities LRSPs using credit ratings in the US generally restrict such use to credit ratings issued by credit rating agencies designated as NRSROs through the US SEC’s registration process.

Finally, in Canada, both the OSFI and the Ontario Securities Commission (OSC) use credit ratings in their LRSPs for asset identification/categorisation purposes, for example, in OSFI LRSPs determining eligible collateral for securities lending loans and OSC LRSPs establishing money market fund investment guidelines.

2. Insurance sector

In the United States, many state insurance laws describe permissible investments and/or concentration limits in terms of ratings and/or NAIC designations for insurance companies.

For example, New York State insurance law delineates permissible investments for the portion of assets corresponding to insurance liabilities.

In describing permissible investments in the obligations of American institutions (other than an insurance company), the law indicates that such investments are permitted as long as they meet one of several criteria.

The list of criteria makes at least two references to rating agency ratings.

First, investment in the obligations of American institutions are permitted if they are rated “A” or higher (or the equivalent thereto) by a securities rating agency recognised by the Superintendent of Insurance.

Second, such investments are permitted if such obligations are insured and, after considering such insurance, are rated “Aaa” (or the equivalent thereto) by a securities rating agency recognised by the Superintendent of Insurance.
 
In addition, some state insurance laws provide limitations on the types of obligations that financial guarantee insurance companies can insure.

For example, New York State insurance law provides that an insurer may insure municipal obligation bonds that are not investment grade so long as at least 95 percent of the insurer’s aggregate net liability is investment grade.

In Japan, insurance regulations restrict the concentration of non-DRA rated assets to specific ratios calculated under the Insurance Business Law and the Ordinance for Enforcement of Insurance Business Law.

Ratings are also used in the German insurance sector for asset identification as one possible criterion to determine the safety of the asset.


C. Securitisations and covered bond offerings
1. Banking and securities sectors

A significant number of respondents indicated that their LRSPs addressing securitisations and/or covered bond offerings used credit ratings, generally by requiring that securitisations offered to investors be rated by one or more credit rating agencies.

The breadth of the use of credit ratings in member authorities’ LRSPs addressing securitisations varied, with some covering all securitisations and other covering only certain identified types of securitisations (eg, in Italy, only where securities are sold to non-professional investors).

The UK FSA noted that ECAI ratings are used to determine the credit quality of a firm’s securitisations positions.

It also noted that with regard to the “covered bond” regime, it may consider whether the counterparty has an appropriate credit rating in considering whether an asset pool is of sufficient quality.

In the United States and Canada, a number of banking and securities LRSPs governing asset-backed instruments reference external ratings.

2. Insurance sector

No respondent stated that credit ratings are used in the insurance sector regulation specifically with regard to securitisations.

In practice, supervision of insurance companies necessarily takes into consideration credit ratings if insurance companies invest in or guarantee securitisation products.


D. Disclosure requirements
1. Banking and securities sectors


A significant number of respondents indicated that credit ratings were used in their LRSPs regulating disclosure.
 
Such usage fell into two broad categories: requirements and exemptions.

A number of respondents indicated that their LRSPs required rated entities to disclose their ratings as well as to disclose when such ratings were changed (or when they believed changes were imminent).

Others noted that their disclosure LRSPs contained exceptions for credit rating agencies, eg, explicitly exempting credit ratings from requirements to disclose certain documents such as pre-sale reports.

Several jurisdictions identified unique disclosure requirements.

For example, in Japan, the JFSA requires ECAIs to disclose certain information regarding the securitisation exposures for credit ratings to be eligible under the Basel II framework (eg, rating criteria, rating transition matrix, and transaction-specific information).

2. Insurance sector

In Japan, DRA ratings are used to determine which disclosures must be made with regard to certain re-insurance contracts.


E. Prospectus eligibility

Several respondents indicated that credit ratings play a role in their LRSPs governing prospectuses for securities offerings.

For example, certain types of prospectuses, such as “short form” prospectuses, include an investment grade rating as one of the criteria for eligibility to use the form.

Among EU jurisdications, the UK FSA noted that in the United Kingdom, there are no references to credit ratings with regard to prospectuses for equities.

For debt instruments, however, the prospectus must disclose the credit ratings assigned to an issuer or its debt securities at the request or with the cooperation of the issuer in the rating process.

Italian legislation allows, in certain instances, the sale of investment grade public bonds issued by OECD States and originally placed with qualified investors without the use of a prospectus.

In the US and Canada, the US SEC and OSC each have a number of LRSPs referring to credit ratings in the context of prospectus requirements, for example, their regulations governing the use of short-form prospectuses in securities offerings.

In Japan, issuers can use the “reference system” of the securities registration statement and the shelf registration system for the public offering of corporate bonds if they meet certain requirements, including that they are rated by DRAs.

 
Member assessments and initiatives

As noted in the introduction, the questionnaire submitted to member authorities requested a description of their assessments, if any, of unintended implications of the use of credit ratings in LRSPs.

The questionnaire included specific questions as to whether the use of credit ratings has had the effect of implying an endorsement of such ratings and/or rating agencies or discouraging investors from performing their own due diligence.

In addition to answering these questions, members provided the working group with information concerning a number of initiatives relevant to both such an assessment and the future use of credit ratings in LRSPs.


A. Assessments on the impact of the use of credit ratings in LRSPs

No respondent reported that it had conducted a comprehensive, formal assessment of the impact of the use of credit ratings in LRSPs on investor behavior.

Nonetheless, many offered their views on the question.

In general, respondents were split as to whether their use of credit ratings and/or reference to credit rating agencies has had the effect of implying an endorsement of such ratings and/or agencies, although a slight majority answered in the affirmative.

Respondents answering in the affirmative were generally cautious in their analysis with only a small minority providing an unconditional affirmative response.

Several respondents whose LRSPs use the term ECAI noted that while Basel II’s introduction of the term was merely meant to be in line with market practice concerning the use of credit ratings issued by major credit rating agencies, the designation of those agencies as ECAIs may have reinforced the tendency of the marketplace to rely on the ratings excessively.

In addition, a small number of respondents noted that the eagerness of some smaller credit rating agencies to obtain the ECAI designation implied a perception that the designation carried an endorsement effect.

Several respondents indicated some additional possible unintended consequences of the use of credit ratings in LRSPs.

Some respondents noted that the use of credit ratings in LRSPs could lead to increased demand for highly rated instruments issued by off-balance sheet entities, as the use of credit ratings in LRSPs may have “officialised” credit ratings for those instruments and therefore made such highly rated investments more desirable.

One respondent suggested that the use of credit ratings in LRSPs may have led to increased barriers to entry for the credit rating industry, as the possible endorsement effect of designating certain credit rating agencies in LRSPs could have negative business effects on agencies not so designated.

Another respondent noted that the use of credit ratings in LRSPs may have resulted in an amplified perception of credit risk as predominant, resulting in reduced attention to other kinds of risk, in particular liquidity and market risks.

Finally, one respondent suggested a possible “relaxing effect” on financial institutions’ internal assessment procedures, as firms may have placed too much reliance on external ratings in lieu of performing their own thorough due diligence of investment opportunitites.

Respondents expressing a belief that their use of credit ratings and/or reference to credit rating agencies in LRSPs has not had any untended “endorsement” effects, generally stressed the purely technical nature of their LRSPs’ use of credit ratings.

Several respondents indicated that their ECAI recognition/designation process was based purely on the verification of a credit rating agency’s compliance with published criteria and thus did not imply any endorsement.

In addition, a majority of respondents expressed their belief that their use of credit ratings and/or reference to credit rating agencies did not discourage investors from performing their own due diligence.

Several respondents indicated that while there may have been investor over-reliance on credit ratings, it was not clear whether the use of credit ratings in LRSPs played a material part in such over-reliance.


B. New Initiatives relating to credit ratings

1. Banking and securities sector
 
The US SEC noted that it has issued proposed rule amendments that would eliminate references to NRSROs and their ratings from most of its LRSPs, stating that by doing so, it would “remove any appearance that the Commission has placed its imprimatur on certain ratings.”

The OSC indicated that it was in the process of considering replacing the word “approved” in its LRSPs employing credit ratings with the word “designated” in order to “avoid misconceptions regarding regulatory endorsement of credit ratings or credit rating agencies.”

The OSC also noted that the Canadian Securities Administrators have published a paper for consultation (until February 2009) that seeks to reduce reliance on credit ratings in Canadian securities legislation by considering possible alternatives to the use of credit ratings or removing the references to credit ratings.

On July 31, 2008, the European Commission (EC) published two working documents for consultative purposes.

The first document sought public views on a draft proposal for a regulation with respect to the authorisation, operation and supervision of credit rating agencies.

Following the public consultation, the EC adopted the proposal on November 12, 2008, in the hope that the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament would adopt the final proposal before the next European Parliament elections in June 2009.

The main objective of the EC proposal is to ensure that ratings are reliable and accurate pieces of information for investors.

Credit rating agencies will be required to deal with conflicts of interest, have sound rating methodologies and increase the transparency of their rating activities.

The proposal also introduces a registration and surveillance procedure for credit rating agencies whose ratings are used by credit institutions, investment firms, insurance, assurance and reinsurance undertakings, collective investment schemes and pension funds within the EU.

The second document, of particular relevance to the Joint Forum’s project, identifies in broad terms the references made to ratings in the existing EU legislation and looks at possible approaches to the potential problem of excessive reliance on ratings.

The EC proposed three possible (but not mutually exclusive) approaches:

(1) require regulated and sophisticated investors to rely more on their own risk analysis, especially for (relatively) large investments;

(2) require that all published ratings include ‘health-warnings’ informing of the specific risks associated with investments in these assets; and/or
 
(3) examine the regulatory references to credit ratings and revisit them as necessary.

In August 2008, the JFSA added new supervisory “checkpoints” for financial institutions in order to avoid uncritical reliance on credit ratings when contemplating investment in structured products.

The checkpoints seek to encourage an understanding of rating methodologies and relevance (eg, what does the rating really mean for purposes of the investment?) as well as establishing better risk management functions within the organisations.

Since April 2008, in order to meet the checkpoint for the sales of securitisation products, the JFSA ensures that distributing institutions are effectively carrying out the collection, risk valuation and disclosure of the underlying securitised assets, as well as assessing the risk factors associated with securitised products without relying solely on credit ratings.

The JFSA’s Financial System Council has pointed out the necessity to review the use of DRA credit ratings for the purpose of the reference system and the shelf registration system for public offerings of corporate bonds.

In December 2008, the JFSA’s Financial System Council has also reported that credit rating agencies should be regulated under the framework of the registration system.

2. Insurance sector

Under current LRSPs, US insurers ceding to reinsurers must obtain collateral from non-US licensed reinsurers in order to reflect the statutory accounting credit for reinsurance, but no collateral is required when ceding to US licensed reinsurers.

Florida recently promulgated rules allowing ceding insurers to take full credit for reinsurance with reduced collateral for reinsurance placed with financially strong foreign reinsurers from qualifying jurisdictions.

In this rule, a preliminary filter, not an absolute criterion, is based on acceptable ratings from recognized rating agencies.

New York is finalizing a similar rule.
 
Within the frameworks, the reinsurer’s credit ratings serve as a maximum cap on the amount of collateral reduction that is available; further analysis and due diligence can, for a given rating for a specific reinsurer, increase the amount of required collateral.

On a broader scale in the United States, a new Reinsurance Regulatory Modernisation Framework has been adopted by the NAIC’s Reinsurance Task Force.

This framework, which is subject to ratification by the NAIC, would change the manner and extent to which US ceding companies can reflect offsets in their statutory financial statements for reinsurance ceded.

Under the proposed framework, reinsurers (both US and non-US) will be assigned to one of five rating categories determined by US insurance regulators based on a number of factors, similar to the New York and Florida frameworks.

Importantly, one of those factors is the reinsurer’s financial strength rating provided from a recognized credit rating agency.

In particular, the lowest rating received by the rating agencies will be used by the regulators to establish the maximum rating of a reinsurer (eg, the maximum amount of collateral reduction).
 
The assigned rating category determines the extent to which the reinsurer is required to collateralise its obligations in order for US cedants to take credit for that reinsurance.

In July 2007, the EC proposed a revision of EU insurance law that would replace 14 existing directives with a single directive designed to improve consumer protection, modernise supervision, deepen market integration and increase the international competitiveness of European insurers.

Under the new system, known as Solvency II, insurers would be required to take account of all types of risk to which they are exposed and to manage those risks more effectively.

In addition, insurance groups would have a dedicated ‘group supervisor’ that would enable better monitoring of the group as a whole.
 
In February 2008, the EC published an amended proposal.
 
The EC’s goal is to have the new system in operation by 2012.

Currently, there are no references to external credit ratings or ECAIs in the latest Directive proposal.

The most recent (fourth) draft Quantitative Impact Study (QIS4), however, would use credit ratings as a proxy for financial strength.

As this remains a work in progress, however, it is unclear what the final capital requirements will be.

The precise design of capital requirements in Solvency II, including the possible counterparty default risk capital charge, will be set out in the future level 2 implementing measures to be developed by end 2010.

 
Conclusion

The stocktaking of the use of credit ratings in the legislation, regulations, and/or supervisory policies (ie, LRSPs) of the 26 agencies, representing 12 different jurisdictions, that delivered responses to JFRAC’s questionnaire reveals a wide spectrum of use.

Member authorities’ responses displayed significant variations both in the breadth and number of the LRSPs referring to credit ratings as well as in the categories of LRSPs in which they were used.

In general, in the jurisdictions covered by the survey, credit ratings are used predominantly in LRSPs in the banking and securities sectors, with more limited use in insurance sector LRSPs.

Geographically, the North Amercian LRSPs used references to credit ratings –specifically, to credit ratings issued by NRSROs – significantly more than in the LRSPs of the EU, Australia, and Japan.

In addition, US and Canadian LRSPs had more in common with one another, while the LRSPs of the EU, Australia, and Japan shared similarities to one another.

Notwithstanding the general differences in the way credit ratings are used in the LRSPs of the member authorities that responded to the questionnaire, the survey revealed notable similarities among the respondents as well.

The category of determining regulatory capital clearly displayed the broadest extent of the use of credit ratings in LRSPs, both in numbers of LRSPs and in the number of jurisdictions in which they are used.

The second most significant category of use was identifying or classifying assets, usually in the context of eligible investments or permissible asset concentrations.

The remaining major categories of use were providing a credible evaluation of the risks associated with assets purchased as part of a securitisation offering; determining disclosure requirements; and determining prospectus eligibility.

While no member authority had conducted a formal assessment of the impact of the use of credit ratings in LRSPs on investor behavior, almost all appear to have considered the issue.

Respondents were split as to whether their use of credit ratings and/or reference to credit rating agencies has had the effect of implying an endorsement of such ratings and/or agencies; however, a slight majority answered in the affirmative.

Finally, as noted above, the US, Canada, the EU, and Japan are considering proposals that may lead to various changes in the use of credit ratings in the LRSPs of those jurisdictions.


Appendix 1

Definitions of key terms


The terms “credit rating” and “credit rating agency” are defined only by a minority of respondents, primarily in regulations (with the US SEC defining both terms in legislation).

Several respondents noted that the definitions were “implicit” in their regulations or that familiarity with the terms is understood.

The two most significant related terms for subsets of “credit rating agencies” are the US SEC’s “nationally recognised statistical rating organisation” (NRSRO) and Basel II’s “external credit assessment institution” (ECAI).

“NRSRO” is defined in US legislation, and that definition is cross-referenced extensively in US regulations as well as the Ontario Securities Commission’s definition of “rating organisation.”

While Basel II sets forth criteria to be used by national supervisors for the “recognition” of ECAIs, it does not contain a definition of the term.

Almost half of the respondents referenced the term “ECAI” in their responses to this question, with several referencing the Basel II framework and/or the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) “Guidelines on the recognition of External Credit Assessment Institutions” (CEBS Guidelines) as well.

A small minority indicated that their LRSPs include an explicit definition of the term “ECAI.” For instance, under the Australian prudential standards, an ECAI is defined as “an entity that assigns credit ratings designed to measure the creditworthiness of a counterparty or certain types of debt obligations of a counterparty.”

The Markets in Financial Instruments Directive (MiFID) includes the term "competent rating agency" as one that "issues credit ratings in respect of money market funds regularly and on a professional basis and is an eligible ECAI within the meaning of Article 81(1) of Directive 2006/48/EC."

Article 81(1) is contained with the EU Capital Requirements Directive (CRD) that implements the Basel II framework and, consistent with that framework, does not define an ECAI, but instead sets forth criteria for the recognition of eligible ECAIs.

Specifically, Article 81 states that “Competent authorities shall recognise an ECAI as eligible … only if they are satisfied that its assessment methodology complies with the requirements of objectivity, independence, ongoing review and transparency, and that the resulting credit assessments meet the requirements of credibility and transparency.”

The term “investment grade” and its variants (eg, “non-investment grade”) are also defined by almost half of the respondents, with those definitions almost evenly divided between those that define the term by reference to specific ratings from specified entities (eg, at or above a Baa rating from Moody’s) and those that define it by reference to categories of ratings and/or entities (eg, rated in one of the four highest categories by an NRSRO).

Other related terms included subsets of credit ratings such as “approved ratings,” “applicable external ratings,” and “credit rating grades” as well as subsets of credit rating agencies such as “approved rating organisations” and “designated rating organisations.”

One respondent defined the terms “solicited rating” and “unsolicited rating.”

The US SEC’s definition of the term “NRSRO” is cross-referenced in a number of US banking regulations as well as several Canadian securities regulations.

As noted above, almost half of the respondents referenced the term “ECAI” in their responses to question I.A.2, with several referencing the Basel II framework and/or the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) “Guidelines on the recognition of External Credit Assessment Institutions” (CEBS Guidelines) as well.

While the majority of respondents clarified their implementation of Basel II,in several cases the responses were unclear on this point.

The majority of respondents indicated that their LRSPs reference specific credit rating agencies.

All but one of those respondents mentioned Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services, and Fitch Ratings, with the exception being a US OTS regulatory bulletin, which referenced the former two entities only.
 
DBRS Limited and Japan Credit Rating Agencies were each cited by several respondents, while Rating and Investment Information, Inc., Mikuni & Co., Fedafin AG1, and AM Best were each cited by one respondent.

In several cases, it was unclear as to whether a respondent was indicating that individual credit rating agencies were mentioned directly in an LRSP, (eg, ““approved rating organisation” means each of DBRS Limited, Fitch Ratings Ltd., Moody’s Investors Service, Standard & Poor’s and any of their successors.”) or that the LRSP used a term generally, with a list of credit rating agencies meeting the criteria for that term contained elsewhere (eg, “Investment grade corporate debt security shall mean any security that…is rated in one of the four highest ratings categories by at least one Nationally Recognised Statistical Ratings Organisation.”)

Several respondents indicated that the individual credit agencies listed are formally reviewed on a regular basis, in some cases on a fixed schedule (ie, annually or every five years).

Several others noted that the Basel II and/or CEBS designation procedures for ECAIs also applied to the removal of the ECAI designation.
 
Finally, a number of respondents indicated that their LRSPs naming individual credit rating agencies could be amended through their jurisdiction’s standard legislative or regulatory process.

The majority of respondents cited the ECAI designation procedures set forth in Basel II as the basis for their selection of the specific entities, with several referencing the CEBS Guidelines as well.
 
The US SEC cited its 2007 regulations establishing a voluntary registration program for NRSROs.

Several other respondents referred to industry consultation or widespread market use as the basis for their use of specific agencies in LRSPs.

 
Appendix 2
Structural overview of Basel II


The different uses of external credit ratings

This section does not aim at being exhaustive but rather at explaining the main usages of
ratings.

Pillar I (Minimum Capital Requirements)
Credit risk


Credit ratings are widely used for the calculation of capital charges for credit risk in order to differentiate the exposures in a risk-sensitive manner and set the capital charges accordingly.

External and/or internal ratings might be used under the revised framework, but as a general principle, Basel II promotes the use of internal ratings, in the context of the internal ratings based approach.

Under the Internal-Rated based Approach, the risk sensitivity of the regulatory capital requirements is attained through the use of internally produced credit ratings models for all the different exposures class (sovereign, bank, corporate, retail and equity).

External ratings are not supposed to be used for the calculation of capital charges (with the exception of securitisation exposures –see below).
 
However, the implementation of the IRB approach might result in some marginal indirect uses of external ratings; the main use is within the area of models validation in, for instance, benchmarking exercises.

Consequently, external ratings are primarily used in the context of the standardised approach.

In the standardised Approach, the risk sensitivity of the regulatory capital requirements is attained through the recourse to external credit ratings for exposures within the corporate, sovereign and bank exposure class.

Institutions may only use the external ratings provided by rating agencies recognised by supervisors (see. Section 4 below), with the exception of exposures to sovereign where banks might directly use the ratings provided by export credit agencies.

In practice, the risk weights applied to sovereign, banks and corporate exposures are differentiated according to the individual external credit assessment of each exposures.

The Basel II framework provides tables that pre-map regulatory determined risk-weights to sets of credit ratings scales from authorised rating agencies, enabling the simple determination of an exposure’s risk weight (tables mapping external ratings and risk-weights are specific to each exposure class).

For example, for corporate exposures, the risk weights applicable might vary from 20 percent to 150 percent depending on the credit assessment of the exposure (see table below), whereas under the Basel 1 framework a 100% risk-weight was applied to all corporate exposures.

Credit risk mitigation rules define how funded credit protections (collateral) and unfunded credit protections (guarantees and credit derivatives) can be recognised.

They are applicable to the standardised approach and to some extent to the IRB foundation approach.

Credit risk mitigation rules refer to authorised external ratings in order to:

• Identify the eligible credit protection (for example, only the guarantees provided by an entity with a rating higher than a predetermined threshold might be recognised)

• Adjust the extent of the recognition of the credit protection (for example, haircuts proportionate to the credit quality of the issuer are applied to collateral under the comprehensive approach).

The securitisation framework differs from the general credit risk rules in the way that both the standardised and the IRB approach use authorised external credit ratings.

• For banks using the standardised Approach, the risk sensitivity of the regulatory capital requirements is attained through the recourse to authorised external credit ratings for the subset of authorised securitisation transactions.

• For banks using the Internal Ratings based Approach, the risk sensitivity of regulatory capital requirements is attained through the recourse to authorised external credit ratings within the Ratings-based approach and to a lesser extent within the Internal Assessment Approach, and through a regulatory setting within the SF (Supervisory formula) when credit ratings cannot be inferred.

The prescribed long term and short term tables that pre-map regulatory determined riskweights to sets of credit ratings scales from authorised ECAIs for the standardised and the IRB approaches differ; the IRB table is more granular and its risk weights are different from that of the standardised approach.


Market risk

When considering market risk measurement, external ratings are only used for the calculation of the specific risk capital charges arising from debt position under the standardised approach for market risk.

In a way similar to what is done within the frame of the credit risk rule, different risk weights are applied to the trading book debt positions according to the external ratings of the issuer.

The rules on specific risk also refer to a notion of qualifying category, which is notably (but not only) based on its turn on the fulfilment of attaining an “investment-grade” credit rating from credit rating agencies.

Under the Internal Model Approach, the risk sensitivity of regulatory capital requirements is attained through the use of internally designed risk management models that are subject to supervisory approval.

Given that these models usually focus on general market risk, the treatment of the capital charge for the area of specific risk measurement will be made separately if the internally designed models do not encompass on top a modelling of specific risk.

A fallback on authorised external credit ratings is possible, or else a broader treatment within the Incremental Risk Capital charge.
 


Operational risk

Under all the different approaches used to measure operational risk, there is no use of external ratings, with the exception of the treatment of risk mitigation techniques in the Advanced Measurement Approach (in line with the overall treatment of risk mitigation techniques under the credit risk rules, the protection provider must have a rating above a defined threshold).
 
Pillar II (Supervisory Review Process)

There is no specified use of external ratings in the context of the Supervisory review process.

Pillar III (Market Discipline)

Pillar III requirements contain specific qualitative disclosure requirements (among others) with respect to the use of external credit assessment institutions (ECAIs) and Export Country Agency (ECAs).

• Credit Risk: Disclosures for Portfolios subject to the standardised and supervisory risk weights in the IRB approaches (see table 5 of the Revised Framework).

Qualitative disclosure (a) Names of ECAIs and ECA used, types of exposures for which each ECAI, ECA is used, alignment of alphanumerical scale with each bucket or evidence of compliance with the mapping published by relevant supervisors.

• Securitisation: Disclosure for standardised and IRB Approaches (see table 9 of the Revised Framework). Qualitative disclosure ( c ) Names of the ECAIs used for securitisation and types of securitisation exposures for which each agency is used.

 
Authorised external ratings and the notion of “ECAI” (External Credit Assessment Institution)

Definition of ECAI and the principle of the “recognition”

External ratings that can be used for the capital purposes, according to the Basel II framework, are limited to the ratings provided by recognised External Credit Assessment Institutions (ECAI).

Supervisors are in charge of the recognition of ECAI.

The ECAI recognition process has two main dimensions:

• Identification of the rating agencies that provide external ratings suitable for capital calculation purposes.

The BCBS has defined criteria in this respect (see. 4.1 below) and supervisors are in charge of assessing whether those criteria are satisfied by the rating agencies willing to be recognised as ECAI.


• Mapping of the external ratings to the risk-weights (or credit quality steps in the EU CRD implementation) defined by the Basel II framework (see. 4.2 below) The ECAI recognition process does not constitute a form of regulation of ECAIs by supervisors or a form of licensing of rating agencies.

It simply aims at the determining the ratings that can be used by banks, by ensuring that the ratings are appropriate for supervisory and capital purposes.


Eligibility criteria

The key purpose of the recognition criteria is to identify rating agencies that produce external credit assessments of sufficiently high quality, consistency and robustness to be used by institutions for regulatory capital purposes.

In order to achieve this goal, the Basel Committee on banking supervision has defined criteria that should be satisfied by rating agencies.

Paragraph 91 of the Basel II framework details those criteria:

• Objectivity: The methodology for assigning credit assessments must be rigorous, systematic, and subject to some form of validation based on historical experience.

Moreover, assessments must be subject to ongoing review and responsive to changes in financial condition. Before being recognised by supervisors, an assessment methodology for each market segment, including rigorous backtesting, must have been established for at least one year and preferably three years.

• Independence: An ECAI should be independent and should not be subject to political or economic pressures that may influence the rating.

The assessment process should be as free as possible from any constraints that could arise in situations where the composition of the board of directors or the shareholder structure of the assessment institution may be seen as creating a conflict of interest.

• International access/Transparency: The individual assessments should be available to both domestic and foreign institutions with legitimate interests and at equivalent terms.

In addition, the general methodology used by the ECAI should be publicly available.

• Disclosure: An ECAI should disclose the following information: its assessment methodologies, including the definition of default, the time horizon, and the meaning of each rating; the actual default rates experienced in each assessment category; and the transitions of the assessments, eg the likelihood of AA ratings becoming A over time.

• Resources: An ECAI should have sufficient resources to carry out high quality credit assessments.

These resources should allow for substantial ongoing contact with senior and operational levels within the entities assessed in order to add value to the credit assessments. Such assessments should be based on methodologies combining qualitative and quantitative approaches.

• Credibility: To some extent, credibility is derived from the criteria above.

In addition, the reliance on an ECAI’s external credit assessments by independent parties (investors, insurers, trading partners) is evidence of the credibility of the assessments of an ECAI.

The credibility of an ECAI is also underpinned by the existence of internal procedures to prevent the misuse of confidential information.

In order to be eligible for recognition, an ECAI does not have to assess firms in more than one country.


The mapping process

Once it has been assessed that a rating agency meets the ECAI recognition requirements, its credit assessments are ‘mapped’ by supervisors to the risk weights (credit quality steps) defined by the Basel II framework, which in turn determines the risk weight (amount of capital) to be applied to each exposure.

The ‘mapping’ is notably based on reference defaults rates (in particular the 3-year cumulative default rates evaluated over the long-term), which should ensure the stability of the mapping but also an equivalent treatment of the ratings provided by the various rating agencies.


European specific aspects

The uses of external ratings in the CRD (Capital Requirements Directive - the European implementation of the Basel II framework) is fully consistent with the international rules.

Nevertheless, two significant differences can be observed :

• in the context of the standardised approach, external ratings can also be used to risk-weight exposures to CIUs (Collective Investment Units).

Specific risk-weights are provided for this exposure class.

• The risk-weight tables, that link credit assessment to risk-weight, are generally more granular.

The CEBS (Committee of European Banking Supervisors) issued in January 2006 “Guidelines on the recognition of External Credit Assessment Institutions” which:

(i) Clarify the recognition process at the European level, by :

• Defining a standard application form, that should be submitted to supervisors by rating agencies willing to be recognised.

The content of the package should allow supervisors to assess the application.

• Creating a joint assessment process, applicable to international ratings agencies (or ratings agencies operating in more than one country).

(ii) Present CEBS Common understanding of the ECAI recognition criteria laid down in the CRD

A rating agency can become a recognised ECAI if a member state supervisor determines that it meets the following criteria in one or all of the three market segments (financial institutions, corporate (includes public sector) and securitisations:

• Objectivity – methodology for assigning credit assessments is systematic, rigorous, continuous, and subject to validation.

• Independence – factors taken into account include ownership and organisational structure, financial resources, staffing and expertise, and corporate governance.
 
• On-going review – responsive to changes in financial conditions and reviewed at least annually.

• Transparency & disclosure – methodologies need to be public so users can decided whether they are derived in a reasonable way.

In addition their credit assessments had to be:

• Credible and accepted by the market – market share, revenues, whether pricing is on the basis of credit assessments.

• Transparent & disclosed - credit assessments need to be available on an equivalent basis.

(iii) Precise the qualitative and quantitative factors that should be used by supervisors when mapping external ratings and regulatory credit quality steps.

 
Forecasting Exercises from the IMF
 
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, Fiscal Affairs Department
The State of Public Finances Cross-Country Fiscal Monitor
 
New evidence on underlying fiscal weakening in advanced countries during the last few years.
 
Many advanced economies entered the crisis with relatively weak structural fiscal positions, and these have been eroded further, not only by anticrisis measures but also by underlying spending pressures.
 
This will raise the bar on fiscal adjustment.
 
The outlook for emerging economies is stronger, if fiscal tightening plans materialize in 2010.

But these countries remain exposed to considerable risks, which are quantified through new statistical analysis.

New estimates of needed medium-term fiscal adjustment in advanced economies

Government debt in advanced G-20 economies
is projected to reach 118 percent of GDP in 2014, even assuming some discretionary tightening next year.
 
Getting debt below 60 percent by 2030 will require raising the average structural primary balance by 8 percentage points of GDP relative to 2010 (10½ percentage points for the headline primary balance).
 
Action will be needed on entitlement spending, on other spending, and on revenues.
 
Japan, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Spain are projected to require the largest fiscal adjustment.
 
Only Denmark, Korea, Norway, Australia and Sweden among advanced economies will require little or no medium-term adjustment to keep debt stocks at safe levels.
 

 
What is the “Volcker Rule” for Financial Institutions?
 
President Obama has called for new restrictions on the size and scope of financial institutions to rein in excessive risk-taking and protect taxpayers.
 
The proposed legislation is called the “Volcker Rule” in recognition of the efforts of former Federal Reserve Chairman and current President’s Economic Recovery Advisory Board Chairman Paul Volcker.
 
Paul Adolph Volcker, an American economist, was the Chairman of the Federal Reserve under United States Presidents Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan (from August 1979 to August 1987).
 
The Volcker Rule seeks to reenact to some extent the Glass-Steagall Act that separated commercial and investment banking.
 

 
Obama Called for New Restrictions on Size and Scope of Financial Institutions to Rein in Excesses and Protect Taxpayers
 
President Obama joined Paul Volcker, former chairman of the Federal Reserve; Bill Donaldson, former chairman of the Securities and Exchange Commission; Congressman Barney Frank, House Financial Services Chairman; Senator Chris Dodd, Chairman of the Banking Committee and the President's economic team to call for new restrictions on the size and scope of banks and other financial institutions to rein in excessive risk taking and to protect taxpayers.

The President’s proposal would strengthen the comprehensive financial reform package that is already moving through Congress.

“While the financial system is far stronger today than it was a year one year ago, it is still operating under the exact same rules that led to its near collapse,” said President Barack Obama.
 
“My resolve to reform the system is only strengthened when I see a return to old practices at some of the very firms fighting reform; and when I see record profits at some of the very firms claiming that they cannot lend more to small business, cannot keep credit card rates low, and cannot refund taxpayers for the bailout. It is exactly this kind of irresponsibility that makes clear reform is necessary.”

The proposal would:

1. Limit the Scope - The President and his economic team will work with Congress to ensure that no bank or financial institution that contains a bank will own, invest in or sponsor a hedge fund or a private equity fund, or proprietary trading operations unrelated to serving customers for its own profit.

2. Limit the Size - The President also announced a new proposal to limit the consolidation of our financial sector. The President’s proposal will place broader limits on the excessive growth of the market share of liabilities at the largest financial firms, to supplement existing caps on the market share of deposits.

In the coming weeks, the President will continue to work closely with Chairman Dodd and others to craft a strong, comprehensive financial reform bill that puts in place common sense rules of the road and robust safeguards for the benefit of consumers, closes loopholes, and ends the mentality of “Too Big to Fail.”
 
Chairman Barney Frank’s financial reform legislation, which passed the House in December, laid the groundwork for this policy by authorizing regulators to restrict or prohibit large firms from engaging in excessively risky activities.

As part of the previously announced reform program, the proposals announced today will help put an end to the risky practices that contributed significantly to the financial crisis.
 
Obama Announced Economic Advisory Board

President Barack Obama signed an executive order establishing the new Economic Recovery Advisory Board.
 
Modeled on the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board created by President Dwight D. Eisenhower, the Board will provide an independent voice on economic issues and will be charged with offering independent advice to the President as he formulates and implements his plans for economic recovery.

The Economic Recovery Advisory Board will provide regular briefings to the President, Vice President and their economic team.
 
The Board will be established initially for a two-year term, after which the President will make a determination on whether to extend the work of the Board.

Members of the Board are distinguished citizens outside the government who are qualified on the basis of achievement, experience, independence, and integrity.
 
The Board will bring a diverse set of perspectives and voices from different parts of the country and different sectors of the economy to bear in the formulation and evaluation of economic policy.

The Board will meet regularly and provide advice directly to the President on the programs to jump-start economic growth and facilitate economic stability. The Board will also focus on how the response to the short-run economic crisis is laying the groundwork for the reforms necessary for longer-run prosperity.
 
Members of the Board include:

William H. Donaldson, Chairman, SEC (2003-2005)

Roger W. Ferguson, Jr., President & CEO, TIAA-CREF

Robert Wolf, Chairman & CEO, UBS Group Americas

David F. Swensen, CIO, Yale University

Mark T. Gallogly, Founder & Managing Partner, Centerbridge Partners L.P.

Penny Pritzker, Chairman & Founder, Pritzker Realty Group

Jeffrey R. Immelt, CEO, GE

John Doerr, Partner, Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers

Jim Owens, Chairman and CEO, Caterpillar Inc.

Monica C. Lozano, Publisher & Chief Executive Officer, La Opinion

Charles E. Phillips, Jr., President, Oracle Corporation

Anna Burger, Chair, Change to Win

Richard L. Trumka, Secretary-Treasurer, AFL-CIO

Laura D'Andrea Tyson, Dean, Haas School of Business at the University of California at Berkeley

Martin Feldstein, George F. Baker Professor of Economics, Harvard University
 

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